Australian vertebrate hosts of Japanese encephalitis virus; a review of the evidence.

Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) transmission in temperate Australia has underscored a critical need to characterise transmission pathways and identify probable hosts of infection within the country. This systematic review consolidates existing research on the vertebrate hosts of JEV that are known to exist in Australia. Specifically, we aim to identify probable species for JEV transmission, their potential role as either a spillover or maintenance host and identify critical knowledge gaps. Data were extracted from studies involving experimental infection, seroprevalence, and virus isolation and were available for 22 vertebrate species known to reside in Australia. A host competence score was calculated to assess the potential for a given species to infect JEV vectors and to quantity their possible role in JEV transmission. Based on the host competence score and ecology of each species, we find ardeid birds, feral pigs, and flying foxes have potential as maintenance hosts for JEV in the Australian context. We also note that brushtail possums and domestic pigs have potential as spillover hosts under certain outbreak conditions. However, evidence to confirm these roles in localized transmission or outbreaks is sparse, emphasizing the need for further targeted research. This review provides a foundation for future investigations into JEV transmission in Australia, advocating for enhanced surveillance and standardized research methodologies to better understand and mitigate the virus's impact.

Intergenomic signatures of coevolution between Tasmanian devils and an infectious cancer.

Coevolution is common and frequently governs host-pathogen interaction outcomes. Phenotypes underlying these interactions often manifest as the combined products of the genomes of interacting species, yet traditional quantitative trait mapping approaches ignore these intergenomic interactions. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD), an infectious cancer afflicting Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii), has decimated devil populations due to universal host susceptibility and a fatality rate approaching 100%. Here, we used a recently developed joint genome-wide association study (i.e., co-GWAS) approach, 15 y of mark-recapture data, and 960 genomes to identify intergenomic signatures of coevolution between devils and DFTD. Using a traditional GWA approach, we found that both devil and DFTD genomes explained a substantial proportion of variance in how quickly susceptible devils became infected, although genomic architectures differed across devils and DFTD; the devil genome had fewer loci of large effect whereas the DFTD genome had a more polygenic architecture. Using a co-GWA approach, devil-DFTD intergenomic interactions explained ~3× more variation in how quickly susceptible devils became infected than either genome alone, and the top genotype-by-genotype interactions were significantly enriched for cancer genes and signatures of selection. A devil regulatory mutation was associated with differential expression of a candidate cancer gene and showed putative allele matching effects with two DFTD coding sequence variants. Our results highlight the need to account for intergenomic interactions when investigating host-pathogen (co)evolution and emphasize the importance of such interactions when considering devil management strategies.

Chytridiomycosis causes high amphibian mortality prior to the completion of metamorphosis.

Amphibian populations are undergoing extensive declines globally. The fungal disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a primary contributor to these declines. The amphibian metamorphic stages (Gosner stages 42-46) are particularly vulnerable to a range of stressors, including Bd. Despite this, studies that explicitly examine host response to chytridiomycosis throughout the metamorphic stages are lacking. We aimed to determine how Bd exposure during the larval stages impacts metamorphic development and infection progression in the endangered Fleay's barred frog (Mixophyes fleayi). We exposed M. fleayi to Bd during pro-metamorphosis (Gosner stages 35-38) and monitored infection dynamics throughout metamorphosis. We took weekly morphological measurements (weight, total body length, snout-vent-length and Gosner stage) and quantified Bd load using qPCR. While we observed minimal impact of Bd infection on animal growth and development, Bd load varied throughout ontogeny, with an infection load plateau during the tadpole stages (Gosner stages 35-41) and temporary infection clearance at Gosner stage 42. Bd load increased exponentially between Gosner stages 42 and 45, with most exposed animals becoming moribund at Gosner stage 45, prior to the completion of metamorphosis. There was variability in infection outcome of exposed individuals, with a subgroup of animals (n = 5/29) apparently clearing their infection while the majority (n = 21/29) became moribund with high infection burdens. This study demonstrates the role that metamorphic restructuring plays in shaping Bd infection dynamics and raises the concern that substantial Bd-associated mortality could be overlooked in the field due to the often cryptic nature of these latter metamorphic stages. We recommend future studies that directly examine the host immune response to Bd infection throughout metamorphosis, incorporating histological and molecular methods to elucidate the mechanisms responsible for the observed trends.

Disease-driven top predator decline affects mesopredator population genomic structure.

Top predator declines are pervasive and often have dramatic effects on ecological communities via changes in food web dynamics, but their evolutionary consequences are virtually unknown. Tasmania's top terrestrial predator, the Tasmanian devil, is declining due to a lethal transmissible cancer. Spotted-tailed quolls benefit via mesopredator release, and they alter their behaviour and resource use concomitant with devil declines and increased disease duration. Here, using a landscape community genomics framework to identify environmental drivers of population genomic structure and signatures of selection, we show that these biotic factors are consistently among the top variables explaining genomic structure of the quoll. Landscape resistance negatively correlates with devil density, suggesting that devil declines will increase quoll genetic subdivision over time, despite no change in quoll densities detected by camera trap studies. Devil density also contributes to signatures of selection in the quoll genome, including genes associated with muscle development and locomotion. Our results provide some of the first evidence of the evolutionary impacts of competition between a top predator and a mesopredator species in the context of a trophic cascade. As top predator declines are increasing globally, our framework can serve as a model for future studies of evolutionary impacts of altered ecological interactions.

Persistent organic pollutants and trace elements detected in New Zealand fur seals (long-nosed fur seal; Arctocephalus forsteri) from New South Wales, Australia, between 1998 and 2019.

Environmental pollution is a growing threat to wildlife health and biodiversity. The relationship between marine mammals and pollutants is, however, complex and as new chemicals are introduced to ecosystems alongside concomitant, interacting threats such as climate change and habitat degradation, the cumulative impact of these stressors to wildlife continues to expand. Understanding the health of wildlife populations requires a holistic approach to identify potential threatening processes. In the context of environmental pollution in little studied wildlife species, it is important to catalogue the current exposome to develop effective biomonitoring programs that can support diagnosis of health impacts and management and mitigation of pollution. In New South Wales, Australia, the New Zealand fur seal (Arctocephalus forsteri) is a resident species experiencing population growth following devastating historic hunting practices. This study presents a retrospective investigation into the exposure of New Zealand fur seals to a range of synthetic organic compounds and essential and non-essential trace elements. Liver tissue from 28 seals were broadly analyzed to assess concentrations of organochlorine and organophosphate pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, and essential and non-essential trace elements. In addition to contributing extensive pollution baseline data for the species, the work explores the influence of sex, age, and body condition on accumulation patterns. Further, based on these findings, it is recommended that a minimum of 11 juvenile male New Zealand fur seals are sampled and analyzed annually in order to maintain a holistic biomonitoring approach for this population.

The tumour is in the detail: Local phylogenetic, population and epidemiological dynamics of a transmissible cancer in Tasmanian devils.

Infectious diseases are a major threat for biodiversity conservation and can exert strong influence on wildlife population dynamics. Understanding the mechanisms driving infection rates and epidemic outcomes requires empirical data on the evolutionary trajectory of pathogens and host selective processes. Phylodynamics is a robust framework to understand the interaction of pathogen evolutionary processes with epidemiological dynamics, providing a powerful tool to evaluate disease control strategies. Tasmanian devils have been threatened by a fatal transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), for more than two decades. Here we employ a phylodynamic approach using tumour mitochondrial genomes to assess the role of tumour genetic diversity in epidemiological and population dynamics in a devil population subject to 12 years of intensive monitoring, since the beginning of the epidemic outbreak. DFTD molecular clock estimates of disease introduction mirrored observed estimates in the field, and DFTD genetic diversity was positively correlated with estimates of devil population size. However, prevalence and force of infection were the lowest when devil population size and tumour genetic diversity was the highest. This could be due to either differential virulence or transmissibility in tumour lineages or the development of host defence strategies against infection. Our results support the view that evolutionary processes and epidemiological trade-offs can drive host-pathogen coexistence, even when disease-induced mortality is extremely high. We highlight the importance of integrating pathogen and population evolutionary interactions to better understand long-term epidemic dynamics and evaluating disease control strategies.

Amphibian infection tolerance to chytridiomycosis.

Animal defences against infection involve two distinct but complementary mechanisms: tolerance and resistance. Tolerance measures the animal's ability to limit detrimental effects from a given infection, whereas resistance is the ability to limit the intensity of that infection. Tolerance is a valuable defence for highly prevalent, persistent or endemic infections where mitigation strategies based on traditional resistance mechanisms are less effective or evolutionarily stable. Selective breeding of amphibians for enhanced tolerance to Batrachochytrium spp. has been suggested as a strategy for mitigating the impacts of the fungal disease, chytridiomycosis. Here, we define infection tolerance and resistance in the context of chytridiomycosis, present evidence for variation in tolerance to chytridiomycosis, and explore epidemiological, ecological and evolutionary implications of tolerance to chytridiomycosis. We found that exposure risk and environmental moderation of infection burdens are major confounders of resistance and tolerance, chytridiomycosis is primarily characterized by variation in constitutive rather than adaptive resistance, tolerance is epidemiologically important in driving pathogen spread and maintenance, heterogeneity of tolerance leads to ecological trade-offs, and natural selection for resistance and tolerance is likely to be dilute. Improving our understanding of infection tolerance broadens our capacity for mitigating the ongoing impacts of emerging infectious diseases such as chytridiomycosis. This article is part of the theme issue 'Amphibian immunity: stress, disease and ecoimmunology'.

Limited impact of chytridiomycosis on juvenile frogs in a recovered species.

The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused catastrophic frog declines on several continents, but disease outcome is mediated by a number of factors. Host life stage is an important consideration and many studies have highlighted the vulnerability of recently metamorphosed or juvenile frogs compared to adults. The majority of these studies have taken place in a laboratory setting, and there is a general paucity of longitudinal field studies investigating the influence of life stage on disease outcome. In this study, we assessed the effect of endemic Bd on juvenile Mixophyes fleayi (Fleay's barred frog) in subtropical eastern Australian rainforest. Using photographic mark-recapture, we made 386 captures of 116 individuals and investigated the effect of Bd infection intensity on the apparent mortality rates of frogs using a multievent model correcting for infection state misclassification. We found that neither Bd infection status nor infection intensity predicted mortality in juvenile frogs, counter to the expectation that early life stages are more vulnerable to disease, despite average high infection prevalence (0.35, 95% HDPI [0.14, 0.52]). Additionally, we found that observed infection prevalence and intensity were somewhat lower for juveniles than adults. Our results indicate that in this Bd-recovered species, the realized impacts of chytridiomycosis on juveniles were apparently low, likely resulting in high recruitment contributing to population stability. We highlight the importance of investigating factors relating to disease outcome in a field setting and make recommendations for future studies.

Recovered frog populations coexist with endemic Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis despite load-dependent mortality.

Novel infectious diseases, particularly those caused by fungal pathogens, pose considerable risks to global biodiversity. The amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has demonstrated the scale of the threat, having caused the greatest recorded loss of vertebrate biodiversity attributable to a pathogen. Despite catastrophic declines on several continents, many affected species have experienced population recoveries after epidemics. However, the potential ongoing threat of endemic Bd in these recovered or recovering populations is still poorly understood. We investigated the threat of endemic Bd to frog populations that recovered after initial precipitous declines, focusing on the endangered rainforest frog Mixophyes fleayi. We conducted extensive field surveys over 4 years at three independent sites in eastern Australia. First, we compared Bd infection prevalence and infection intensities within frog communities to reveal species-specific infection patterns. Then, we analyzed mark-recapture data of M. fleayi to estimate the impact of Bd infection intensity on apparent mortality rates and Bd infection dynamics. We found that M. fleayi had lower infection intensities than sympatric frogs across the three sites, and cleared infections at higher rates than they gained infections throughout the study period. By incorporating time-varying individual infection intensities, we show that healthy M. fleayi populations persist despite increased apparent mortality associated with infrequent high Bd loads. Infection dynamics were influenced by environmental conditions, with Bd prevalence, infection intensity, and rates of gaining infection associated with lower temperatures and increased rainfall. However, mortality remained constant year-round despite these fluctuations in Bd infections, suggesting major mortality events did not occur over the study period. Together, our results demonstrate that while Bd is still a potential threat to recovered populations of M. fleayi, high rates of clearing infections and generally low average infection loads likely minimize mortality caused by Bd. Our results are consistent with pathogen resistance contributing to the coexistence of M. fleayi with endemic Bd. We emphasize the importance of incorporating infection intensity into disease models rather than infection status alone. Similar population and infection dynamics likely exist within other recovered amphibian-Bd systems around the globe, promising longer-term persistence in the face of endemic chytridiomycosis.

Effects of two firefighting chemical formulations, Phos-Chek LC95W and BlazeTamer380, on striped marsh frog (Limodynastes peronii) tadpole survival, growth, development and behaviour.

Global wildfire events are projected to become more frequent and severe due to the continual threat of climate change, resulting in increasing demand for effective fire mitigation methods. Firefighting chemicals (FFCs), including retardants, foams and water enhancers, are often used to prevent the spread of wildfires. However, the impact of FFCs on wildlife and ecosystems is poorly understood. We investigated the effects of two common FFC formulations, Phos-Chek LC95W and BlazeTamer380, on tadpole survival, growth, development and swimming behaviour. Tadpoles of the striped marsh frog (Limnodynastes peronii) were exposed to two concentrations of either Phos-Chek (0.25 and 1 g/L) or BlazeTamer (0.05 and 0.2 g/L) for 16 days. The highest concentration of Phos-Chek was lethal to tadpoles, with mortalities gradually increasing over time and only 8% of animals surviving to day 16. Both FFCs influenced the growth and development of tadpoles, though effects were more severe in tadpoles exposed to the Phos-Chek formulation. Phos-Chek was found to completely stop tadpole growth and development over the 16-day exposure, whereas BlazeTamer significantly delayed growth and development in comparison to controls. Nevertheless, treatments had no apparent effect on tadpole movement patterns and swimming activity. Greater toxicity caused by the Phos-Chek treatment likely relates to the increased ammonia and altered water quality parameters. Runoff or accidental application of commonly used FFCs into small waterways may therefore have important ramifications for aquatic biota.

Do immune system changes at metamorphosis predict vulnerability to chytridiomycosis? An update.

Amphibians are among the vertebrate groups suffering great losses of biodiversity due to a variety of causes including diseases, such as chytridiomycosis (caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and B. salamandrivorans). The amphibian metamorphic period has been identified as being particularly vulnerable to chytridiomycosis, with dramatic physiological and immunological reorganisation likely contributing to this vulnerability. Here, we overview the processes behind these changes at metamorphosis and then perform a systematic literature review to capture the breadth of empirical research performed over the last two decades on the metamorphic immune response. We found that few studies focused specifically on the immune response during the peri-metamorphic stages of amphibian development and fewer still on the implications of their findings with respect to chytridiomycosis. We recommend future studies consider components of the immune system that are currently under-represented in the literature on amphibian metamorphosis, particularly pathogen recognition pathways. Although logistically challenging, we suggest varying the timing of exposure to Bd across metamorphosis to examine the relative importance of pathogen evasion, suppression or dysregulation of the immune system. We also suggest elucidating the underlying mechanisms of the increased susceptibility to chytridiomycosis at metamorphosis and the associated implications for population persistence. For species that overlap a distribution where Bd/Bsal are now endemic, we recommend a greater focus on management strategies that consider the important peri-metamorphic period.

Counterintuitive scaling between population abundance and local density: Implications for modelling transmission of infectious diseases in bat populations.

Models of host-pathogen interactions help to explain infection dynamics in wildlife populations and to predict and mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover. Insights from models inherently depend on the way contacts between hosts are modelled, and crucially, how transmission scales with animal density. Bats are important reservoirs of zoonotic disease and are among the most gregarious of all mammals. Their population structures can be highly heterogeneous, underpinned by ecological processes across different scales, complicating assumptions regarding the nature of contacts and transmission. Although models commonly parameterise transmission using metrics of total abundance, whether this is an ecologically representative approximation of host-pathogen interactions is not routinely evaluated. We collected a 13-month dataset of tree-roosting Pteropus spp. from 2,522 spatially referenced trees across eight roosts to empirically evaluate the relationship between total roost abundance and tree-level measures of abundance and density-the scale most likely to be relevant for virus transmission. We also evaluate whether roost features at different scales (roost level, subplot level, tree level) are predictive of these local density dynamics. Roost-level features were not representative of tree-level abundance (bats per tree) or tree-level density (bats per m2 or m3 ), with roost-level models explaining minimal variation in tree-level measures. Total roost abundance itself was either not a significant predictor (tree-level 3D density) or only weakly predictive (tree-level abundance). This indicates that basic measures, such as total abundance of bats in a roost, may not provide adequate approximations for population dynamics at scales relevant for transmission, and that alternative measures are needed to compare transmission potential between roosts. From the best candidate models, the strongest predictor of local population structure was tree density within roosts, where roosts with low tree density had a higher abundance but lower density of bats (more spacing between bats) per tree. Together, these data highlight unpredictable and counterintuitive relationships between total abundance and local density. More nuanced modelling of transmission, spread and spillover from bats likely requires alternative approaches to integrating contact structure in host-pathogen models, rather than simply modifying the transmission function.

Optimizing noninvasive sampling of a zoonotic bat virus.

Outbreaks of infectious viruses resulting from spillover events from bats have brought much attention to bat-borne zoonoses, which has motivated increased ecological and epidemiological studies on bat populations. Field sampling methods often collect pooled samples of bat excreta from plastic sheets placed under-roosts. However, positive bias is introduced because multiple individuals may contribute to pooled samples, making studies of viral dynamics difficult. Here, we explore the general issue of bias in spatial sample pooling using Hendra virus in Australian bats as a case study. We assessed the accuracy of different under-roost sampling designs using generalized additive models and field data from individually captured bats and pooled urine samples. We then used theoretical simulation models of bat density and under-roost sampling to understand the mechanistic drivers of bias. The most commonly used sampling design estimated viral prevalence 3.2 times higher than individual-level data, with positive bias 5-7 times higher than other designs due to spatial autocorrelation among sampling sheets and clustering of bats in roosts. Simulation results indicate using a stratified random design to collect 30-40 pooled urine samples from 80 to 100 sheets, each with an area of 0.75-1 m2, and would allow estimation of true prevalence with minimum sampling bias and false negatives. These results show that widely used under-roost sampling techniques are highly sensitive to viral presence, but lack specificity, providing limited information regarding viral dynamics. Improved estimation of true prevalence can be attained with minor changes to existing designs such as reducing sheet size, increasing sheet number, and spreading sheets out within the roost area. Our findings provide insight into how spatial sample pooling is vulnerable to bias for a wide range of systems in disease ecology, where optimal sampling design is influenced by pathogen prevalence, host population density, and patterns of aggregation.

Conventional wisdom on roosting behavior of Australian flying-foxes-A critical review, and evaluation using new data.

Fruit bats (Family: Pteropodidae) are animals of great ecological and economic importance, yet their populations are threatened by ongoing habitat loss and human persecution. A lack of ecological knowledge for the vast majority of Pteropodid species presents additional challenges for their conservation and management.In Australia, populations of flying-fox species (Genus: Pteropus) are declining and management approaches are highly contentious. Australian flying-fox roosts are exposed to management regimes involving habitat modification, through human-wildlife conflict management policies, or vegetation restoration programs. Details on the fine-scale roosting ecology of flying-foxes are not sufficiently known to provide evidence-based guidance for these regimes, and the impact on flying-foxes of these habitat modifications is poorly understood.We seek to identify and test commonly held understandings about the roosting ecology of Australian flying-foxes to inform practical recommendations and guide and refine management practices at flying-fox roosts.We identify 31 statements relevant to understanding of flying-fox roosting structure and synthesize these in the context of existing literature. We then contribute a contemporary, fine-scale dataset on within-roost structure to further evaluate 11 of these statements. The new dataset encompasses 13-monthly repeat measures from 2,522 spatially referenced roost trees across eight sites in southeastern Queensland and northeastern New South Wales.We show evidence of sympatry and indirect competition between species, including spatial segregation of black and grey-headed flying-foxes within roosts and seasonal displacement of both species by little red flying-foxes. We demonstrate roost-specific annual trends in occupancy and abundance and provide updated demographic information including the spatial and temporal distributions of males and females within roosts.Insights from our systematic and quantitative study will be important to guide evidence-based recommendations on restoration and management and will be crucial for the implementation of priority recovery actions for the preservation of these species in the future.

Spatial variation in gene expression of Tasmanian devil facial tumors despite minimal host transcriptomic response to infection.

BACKGROUND: Transmissible cancers lie at the intersection of oncology and infectious disease, two traditionally divergent fields for which gene expression studies are particularly useful for identifying the molecular basis of phenotypic variation. In oncology, transcriptomics studies, which characterize the expression of thousands of genes, have identified processes leading to heterogeneity in cancer phenotypes and individual prognoses. More generally, transcriptomics studies of infectious diseases characterize interactions between host, pathogen, and environment to better predict population-level outcomes. Tasmanian devils have been impacted dramatically by a transmissible cancer (devil facial tumor disease; DFTD) that has led to widespread population declines. Despite initial predictions of extinction, populations have persisted at low levels, due in part to heterogeneity in host responses, particularly between sexes. However, the processes underlying this variation remain unknown. RESULTS: We sequenced transcriptomes from healthy and DFTD-infected devils, as well as DFTD tumors, to characterize host responses to DFTD infection, identify differing host-tumor molecular interactions between sexes, and investigate the extent to which tumor gene expression varies among host populations. We found minimal variation in gene expression of devil lip tissues, either with respect to DFTD infection status or sex. However, 4088 genes were differentially expressed in tumors among our sampling localities. Pathways that were up- or downregulated in DFTD tumors relative to normal tissues exhibited the same patterns of expression with greater intensity in tumors from localities that experienced DFTD for longer. No mRNA sequence variants were associated with expression variation. CONCLUSIONS: Expression variation among localities may reflect morphological differences in tumors that alter ratios of normal-to-tumor cells within biopsies. Phenotypic variation in tumors may arise from environmental variation or differences in host immune response that were undetectable in lip biopsies, potentially reflecting variation in host-tumor coevolutionary relationships among sites that differ in the time since DFTD arrival.

Physiology and ecology combine to determine host and vector importance for Ross River virus.

Identifying the key vector and host species that drive the transmission of zoonotic pathogens is notoriously difficult but critical for disease control. We present a nested approach for quantifying the importance of host and vectors that integrates species' physiological competence with their ecological traits. We apply this framework to a medically important arbovirus, Ross River virus (RRV), in Brisbane, Australia. We find that vertebrate hosts with high physiological competence are not the most important for community transmission; interactions between hosts and vectors largely underpin the importance of host species. For vectors, physiological competence is highly important. Our results identify primary and secondary vectors of RRV and suggest two potential transmission cycles in Brisbane: an enzootic cycle involving birds and an urban cycle involving humans. The framework accounts for uncertainty from each fitted statistical model in estimates of species' contributions to transmission and has has direct application to other zoonotic pathogens.

Effects of Waning Maternal Immunity on Infection Dynamics in Seasonally Breeding Wildlife.

Increasing outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases originating from wildlife have intensified interests in understanding their dynamics in reservoir hosts. The effect of waning maternally derived antibodies on epidemics in a seasonally breeding wild mammal population is unclear. We examined how the population structure, influenced by seasonal breeding and maternally derived immunity, affects viral invasion and persistence using a hypothetical system based on Hendra virus infection in black flying foxes (Pteropus alecto). A deterministic Hendra virus epidemic model with uncertainty in parameter values was used to simulate transient epidemics following viral introduction into an infection-free population, including various timings within a year and differences in pre-existing seroprevalence. Additionally, we applied different modelling methods of waning maternal immunity to examine whether different models notably affected modelling outputs. The waning of maternally derived immunity temporally dispersed the supply of susceptible individuals in seasonally breeding populations, diminishing the effect of birth pulses generating the temporally synchronised supply of susceptible newborns. Thus, even in a population with seasonal births, a considerable level of probabilities of viral invasion and persistence could occur no matter when infectious individuals were introduced into the population. Viral invasion and persistence were substantially influenced by the modelling method of maternally derived immunity, emphasising the need to select an appropriate method and further investigate the waning pattern of maternally derived antibodies.

Spatial dynamics of pathogen transmission in communally roosting species: Impacts of changing habitats on bat-virus dynamics.

The spatial organization of populations determines their pathogen dynamics. This is particularly important for communally roosting species, whose aggregations are often driven by the spatial structure of their environment. We develop a spatially explicit model for virus transmission within roosts of Australian tree-dwelling bats (Pteropus spp.), parameterized to reflect Hendra virus. The spatial structure of roosts mirrors three study sites, and viral transmission between groups of bats in trees was modelled as a function of distance between roost trees. Using three levels of tree density to reflect anthropogenic changes in bat habitats, we investigate the potential effects of recent ecological shifts in Australia on the dynamics of zoonotic viruses in reservoir hosts. We show that simulated infection dynamics in spatially structured roosts differ from that of mean-field models for equivalently sized populations, highlighting the importance of spatial structure in disease models of gregarious taxa. Under contrasting scenarios of flying-fox roosting structures, sparse stand structures (with fewer trees but more bats per tree) generate higher probabilities of successful outbreaks, larger and faster epidemics, and shorter virus extinction times, compared to intermediate and dense stand structures with more trees but fewer bats per tree. These observations are consistent with the greater force of infection generated by structured populations with less numerous but larger infected groups, and may flag an increased risk of pathogen spillover from these increasingly abundant roost types. Outputs from our models contribute insights into the spread of viruses in structured animal populations, like communally roosting species, as well as specific insights into Hendra virus infection dynamics and spillover risk in a situation of changing host ecology. These insights will be relevant for modelling other zoonotic viruses in wildlife reservoir hosts in response to habitat modification and changing populations, including coronaviruses like SARS-CoV-2.

Contemporary and historical selection in Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) support novel, polygenic response to transmissible cancer.

Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii) are evolving in response to a unique transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), first described in 1996. Persistence of wild populations and the recent emergence of a second independently evolved transmissible cancer suggest that transmissible cancers may be a recurrent feature in devils. Here, we compared signatures of selection across temporal scales to determine whether genes or gene pathways under contemporary selection (six to eight generations) have also been subject to historical selection (65-85 Myr). First, we used targeted sequencing, RAD-capture, in approximately 2500 devils in six populations to identify genomic regions subject to rapid evolution. We documented genome-wide contemporary evolution, including 186 candidate genes related to cell cycling and immune response. Then we used a molecular evolution approach to identify historical positive selection in devils compared to other marsupials and found evidence of selection in 1773 genes. However, we found limited overlap across time scales, with only 16 shared candidate genes, and no overlap in enriched functional gene sets. Our results are consistent with a novel, multi-locus evolutionary response of devils to DFTD. Our results can inform conservation by identifying high priority targets for genetic monitoring and guiding maintenance of adaptive potential in managed populations.

Using Stochastic Modeling to Predict the Effect of Culling and Colony Dispersal of Bats on Zoonotic Viral Epidemics.

Frequent outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases originating from wild animals have highlighted the necessity of managing wildlife populations to prevent zoonotic spillover, and the appropriate development of management protocols required attention on gaining a better understanding of viral dynamics in wild animal populations. In east Australia, there have been outbreaks of Hendra virus (HeV) infection in horses and humans following spillover from the virus's reservoir hosts, flying foxes (family Pteropodidae), and bat culling and colony dispersal have been proposed as appropriate management strategies. A key factor relating to flying fox population structure that influences HeV dynamics is that these bats form metapopulations, and consequently, to assess this factor, we designed an epidemic dynamics model of HeV transmission, focusing on bat metapopulation dynamics. Specifically, using flying fox movement data, we stochastically simulated models for a hypothetical metapopulation of flying foxes to examine the impact of metapopulation-related parameters, and subsequently simulated probable scenarios of culling and colony dispersal to estimate their effects on the probability of epidemic occurrence. Modeling of the hypothetical metapopulation revealed that a reduction in the number of large-sized colonies would lead to an increase in the probability of epidemic occurrence within the bat population, whereas the strong spatial coupling among colonies was found to dilute the effects of altering the number of colonies and the number of bats in each colony through culling or colony dispersal of bats on the probability that an epidemic within the bat population would occur. Culling and colony dispersal scenarios showed no significantly beneficial effect with respect to reducing the probability of an HeV epidemic occurring in flying foxes, and may indeed prove counterproductive. In conclusion, the modeling results indicate that bat culling and colony dispersal may not be an effective strategy to control HeV epidemics.